The UK’s national risk assessment contained no plans for lockdowns or economic collapse, a senior civil servant has told the Covid-19 Inquiry.
Speaking on Friday, Katharine Hammond, the former director of the civil contingencies secretariat in the Cabinet Office, said the National Security Risk Assessment (NSRA) contained no details to help the country prepare for lockdowns or a massive economic shock, such as that seen during the pandemic.
The inquiry heard how the UK’s preparation for a flu pandemic – which was deemed more likely than a coronavirus pandemic – had massively hindered the ability of the country to prepare for the effects of Covid, which has killed more than 200,000 people in the UK.
When asked whether the NSRA had any “any consideration of full national lockdowns”, Hammon said “no” as lockdowns were not “an effective tool” against flu pandemics.
The Covid-19 public inquiry is a historic chance to find out what really happened.
Hammond was also asked if there was “consideration, foresight or planning for a total economic collapse, furlough scheme for national support financially and for the closing of businesses and in effect, the economy?” by chief counsel to the inquiry, Hugo Keith KC.
“All of those things flow from the planning for a lockdown so, the answer follows no,” said Hammond.
The NSRA is the government’s secret assessment of the risks that could cause a national emergency in the UK. It is used to create plans to prevent risks.
The inquiry heard how the Royal Academy of Engineering had criticised the NSRA for being too specific in 2021, after being commissioned by the Cabinet Office to carry out an external review of the assessment.
The review found that the NSRA had not prepared for a less likely but “catastrophic” event, such as coronavirus.
It said the document should consider only impact, not “impact and likelihood” as “the risk of a disease which may be less likely to occur, but which if it does could be catastrophic, cannot be ignored.”
When asked whether Hammond agreed with these “structural flaws,” she agreed they were “excellent improvements, yes.”
Rivka Gottlieb, a spokesperson for Covid-19 Bereaved Families for Justice, told openDemocracy: “The news that the Cabinet Office hadn’t done any preparations for lockdowns prior to the pandemic is absolutely horrific for families like mine.”
“The risk of a pandemic was common knowledge but it’s clear that the government was caught completely unprepared,” she added. “The thought that my Dad might still be with us today if this hadn’t been the case is incredibly painful to live with.”
Hammond gave evidence during the first module of the Covid-19 inquiry, which is seeking to explore the UK’s preparedness for the pandemic.
The former senior civil servant also spoke of how, during her leadership of the civil contingencies secretariat, Operation Yellowhammer, which was a cross-government preparation for a no-deal exit from the EU, was, “a really major consumer of resources in [her] time”.
On the same day of the inquiry, prominent scientists Michael Marmot and Clare Bambra explained how their report, commissioned by the inquiry, found little mention or consideration of health inequalities like structural racism in the UK’s government’s planning documents.
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